'07 Orlando Magic Preview
Rashard Lewis Adds Offense to Dwight Howard's Defense
2007 Orlando Magic NBA Season Preview
The Orlando Magic desperately needed scoring and outside shooting last season. In response to this need, they emptied their wallets for Rashard Lewis, who averaged 22.4 ppg, 6.6 rbpg and hit 2.5 treys per game last season in 60 games played. Orlando signed Lewis to a multi-year contract worth about $15 million per season. Some believe they spent too much, but no one seems to contend that Lewis won't be a significant lift to the Magic offense. Dwight Howard is a great up-and-coming star, but his offense is still unpolished. Despite getting many touches on the low block, he was able to get off just 10.7 shots per game and doesn't have much of a post up move to speak of. His game mainly revolves around bullish dunks and put backs. Yet, he is one of the league's top rebounders and should only get better.
The Magic somehow made the playoffs last season, but aren't really equipped to contend for anything. They have a shallow roster and not a whole lot of veteran leadership. Still, they were 40-42 last season and essentially replaced an overrated Darko Milicic with a proven scorer in Lewis. They could do even better this season if things fall into place for them.
Many believe J.J. Redick is the team's future at shooting guard. Yet, there isn't much to his game other than his proficiency from beyond the arc. He's a deadly sharp-shooter to be sure, but he needs to improve his defense, ball handling, penetration skills, passing and more. However, he does have one things going for him. He's an extremely hard worker. That alone makes him an intriguing prospect for the Magic.
Statistics Projections/Depth Chart
- Center: Dwight Howard 19.2 ppg, 12.7 rbpg, 2.0 bspg (back up: Tony Battie)
- Power Forward: Hedo Turkoglu 12.2 ppg, 4.5 rbpg (back up: Pat Garrity)
- Small Forward: Rashard Lewis 23.3 ppg, 6.1 rbpg (back up: Keith Bogans)
- Point Guard: Jameer Nelson 11.4 ppg, 4.7 apg (back up: Carlos Arroyo)
- Shooting Guard: Trevor Ariza 10.5 ppg, 4.8 rbpg (back up: J.J. Redick)
Key Losses
The Magic let forward-center Darko Milicic go to make room for Lewis. Milicic certainly has upside, but didn't address the team's most pressing needs.
Key Additions
Signing Rashard Lewis was controversial. Many thought Orlando paid too much. Still, Lewis is an underrated scorer and a big time, clutch player. Unbeknownst to most, his best attribute is his post game. What makes him so dangerous is that not only can he face up and hit the three-pointer with great proficiency, but he's improved his ballhandling and is deadly with his back-to-the-basket against smaller players, and even sometimes larger players. This is because even if he's force far from the block, he has the length and accuracy to hit the turn around, fade away jumper consistently. Lewis gives Magic the scoring option they need to complement Dwight Howard.
Team Rumors
Orlando probably won't make any other significant moves, as Lewis sort of ties up their cap space. Still, they've offered some expiring contracts, like Pat Garrity's and Carlos Arroyo's.
Prediction
Orlando has improved, but so has the rest of the East. They'll win just one more game than last season, giving them a 41-41 record, which will be just good enough to face off against the Detroit Pistons as the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Unfortunately for the Magic, they'll get swept.
Fantasy Spin
There will be a tendancy by most fantasy owners to draft Dwight Howard early, but be mindful of his shortcomings. His low free throw percentage will kill fantasy teams in that category. He shot just 59% from the line, but the real kicker is that he attempted 8.1 foul shots per game. That means that his 59% from the line affects fantasy scores more than, say, a player who shoots half as many foul shots at a proficiency of 80%. Also consider that the league leader in foul shot attempts per game is Dwayne Wade at 10.5 and that Howard is 11th in the league in foul shot attempts. That might offer a clearer indication of just how badly his free throw shooting can hurt. He's like Shaquille O'Neal's heir when it comes to foul shooting. If that weren't enough, his turnovers are also atrocious. He averaged 3.9 topg (which is among the league's worst) for every 1.9 assists per game. There is no excuse for a big man to average that many turnovers. Expect him to go within the first twenty picks of most of your leagues, but pass on him unless he's available between picks 40-50 at best.
On the other hand, Rashard Lewis will be a fantasy stud this year, especially in leagues that factor turnovers. He shoots a high volume of threes, scores a lot of points in a variety of ways, and doesn't commit many turnovers. With these things in mind, considering him in the top fifteen isn't unreasonable, though he'll likely slip past that. Try to nab him between picks 10 and 25 if you can.
Trevor Ariza could be a good late-round steal, but don't get too overly excited about J.J. Redick or anyone else on the Magic.
NBA Eastern Conference Team Previews: Atlanta Hawks; Boston Celtics; Cleveland Cavaliers; Chicago Bulls; Charlotte Bobcats; Detroit Pistons; Indiana Pacers; Miami Heat; Milwaukee Bucks; New Jersey Nets; New York Knicks; Orlando Magic; Philadelphia 76ers; Toronto Raptors; Washington Wizards
NBA Western Conference Team Previews: Dallas Mavericks; Denver Nuggets; Golden State Warriors; Houston Rockets; Los Angeles Clippers; Los Angeles Lakers; Memphis Grizzlies; Minnesota Timberwolves; New Orleans Hornets; Phoenix Suns; Portland Trail Blazers; Sacramento Kings; San Antonio Spurs; Seattle Supersonics; Utah Jazz
