2007 NBA Draft Player Watch
More Than Just the Greg Oden, Kevin Durant Sweepstakes
An early preview of the 2007 NBA Draft and a guide to understand how to assess which players will end up with which teams.
The excitement continues to build around the 2007 NBA Draft as teams salivate at the chance to land the next dominant center in Greg Oden or a star forward in Kevin Durant. Yet, there are more players than simply these two who could make immediate impacts on their future NBA teams.
Two-time NCAA champions are producing numerous potential stars. Their top three players, forward Joakim Noah, forward Al Horford and forward/guard Corey Brewer should all be lottery picks. Horford is probably the most coveted of the trio and is expected to land somewhere between picks three and five. At 6-9 245lbs, Horford already has an NBA body and is athletic enough to be effective at both ends at the NBA level. He actually blocked more shots at Florida this season than Noah, who's more renown for his shot blocking ability and has a 15-foot jumper to boot. Corey Brewer has seen his stock rise tremendously after a stellar tournament run this March. Brewer will have to gain weight or play guard in the NBA. At 6-8, he's only about 185lbs. Yet, his defensive toughness, winner's mentality and clutch play has drawn a lot of interest from NBA scouts. Had Joakim Noah declared for the draft last season, he might have been a top five pick. Though, he would not have earned a second NCAA title. Noah's skills have been in question by scouts, as he has not shown much development to his game since last season and is still a bit rough around the edges. Still, teams are drawn to his energy and hustle, as well as his length at 7-0 and will to win.
Another player who's receiving a lot of buzz is North Carolina's Brandan Wright. He's not as NBA-ready as Oden or Durant, but some think he has that kind of upside. At 6-10 and about 210lbs, he still needs to gain a lot of weight and muscle without losing too much quickness. He's often compared to Chris Bosh because of his fluidity on the court and face up game as a power forward. He is expected to go either three or four in the draft.
The draft will also feature forward Yi Jianlian, a 7-footer from China. He's often compared to Yao Ming, though he plays nothing like him. Think of Jianlian as a quicker Andrea Bargnani without quite as good of an outside shot. Jianlian really flies up and down the court and has a good understanding of the game. He is a bit of a tweener and NBA coaches will have to decide whether to play him at the three or four position, or whether to go small and play him at center.
Here's a prediction for the top five picks. Keep in mind that the draft order will likely change after the NBA lottery drawing is complete on May 22nd.
- Memphis Grizzlies selects center Greg Oden (Oden would be a great complement for Pau Gasol, whose more of an offensive player)
- Boston Celtics selects forward Kevin Durant (Durant and Pierce would be fun to watch and might make Gerald Green expendable)
- Milwaukee Bucks selects forward Al Horford (Horford's a better fit for the Bucks than Brandan Wright. The Bucks need toughness alongside Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva)
- Phoenix Suns (from Atlanta) selects forward Brandan Wright (He's a perfect fit for Phoenix's up-and-down style of play)
- Seattle selects Yi Jianlian (Jianlian has the most upside of any of the players who should be considered this high and he'd provide insurance if the Sonics can't re-sign Rashard Lewis)
The Phoenix Suns get the Atlanta Hawks pick via the Joe Johnson if it's not in the top three.
The secret to understanding the NBA Draft is to realize that a players' stock can be extremely fickle. Players who were projected to go high in past drafts have slipped dramatically for small reasons, like rumors that were later proven untrue. Also, just because a player performed well in college does not mean that players' game will translate to the pros. Athleticism and size have a lot to do with how high a player will get drafted, as these things contribute to a players' "upside", or potential. Moreover, much of a players' draft stock is determined by the draft camps and workouts. Since those aren't open to the general public the best way to keep up with players' draft stocks as the Draft approaches is to frequently check in with NBA rumors.
Another example of how fickle a players' draft stock can get is the case of Dwayne Wade's fluctuating stock in 2003. Wade performed brilliantly in the March Madness Tournament with Marquette, but most thought he wouldn't crack the top ten picks in the draft because of his size. At 6-4 he was considered small for a shooting guard and many scouts were unsure he could handle the point guard position in the NBA. He raised his stock by dominating at the Chicago Draft Camp that June and was eventually selected by the Miami Heat with the fifth pick. In actuality, they were rumored to be wanting forward Emeka Okafor of Connecticut. Okafor was more of Pat Riley's kind of player, but when Okafor dropped out of the Draft, they had to go with someone else. Some were surprised when they selected Wade, though it obviously turned out well for them.
With this in mind, the NBA Draft is an exciting event for fans because anything can happen.
Here are key NBA Draft related dates to remember:
- May 22: NBA Draft Lottery Drawing
- June 18th: Early Entry Withdrawal Deadline
- June 28th: NBA Draft 2007
- July 6-15: NBA Summer League
See what happened in last year's NBA Draft and check out "Greg Oden vs Kevin Durant" and stay tuned for more Suite101 basketball NBA Draft coverage in the coming months.
