2008 Miami Heat Summer Forecast
Shawn Marion Could Opt Out of Large Contract
After winning the NBA Championship in 2006, the Miami Heat plummeted to a league-worst 15-67 record in 2008. Their reward is the number two pick of the 2008 NBA Draft and some interesting pieces to work with in the off season.
They still have their star Guard, Dwayne Wade. He can't opt out of his contract until 2010. They also have former All-Star Forward Shawn Marion, though they'll have to decide whether or not to sign him to an extension. He's able to opt out of his contract this summer, and he'll likely be asking for the maximum deal. That being said, it's unlikely he'll actually be able to get the max deal. Marion's widely reguarded as a very good player, but has been criticized in the past for poor playoff performances and for not being able to create his own shot. If the Heat let him go, that would be about $16-$17 million that would come off their salary cap for next year. That's a lot of money.
Aside from Marion, Jason Williams' $9 million contract will be coming off their books this summer, as well as Ricky Davis' $6.8 million contract and Alonzo Mourning's $2.7 million. In all, the Heat could be looking at an extra $35 million or so of cap room to work with.
Miami's going to have to play a tough balancing act of rebuilding with young talent while keeping Dwayne Wade happy enough to want to re-sign when his contract is up. The roster features some promising young talent, such as Dorell Wright, Daequan Cook and Earl Barron, but the question remains whether or not the Heat have the balance they need to compete. Of now, their roster currently consists of mostly athletic slasher types. Miami badly needs a reliable point guard to take the ball handling load off of Wade, some perimeter shooters to spread the floor for these slashers, an inside defensive presence to replace Alonzo Mourning when he retires, among other things.
Free Agent Watch
Elton Brand is the top free agent available this summer, but nabbing him won't be an easy feat. Still, Miami has the means to do it with a star like Wade and a lot of freed up cap space. The hinge with him will be whether or not he can be the same dominant player after his achilles heel injury.
Another option on the free agent market might be Antawn Jamison. Like Brand, Jamison plays the power forward position, but isn't the defensive presence or bruiser Brand is on the block. Yet, Jamison is a very effective scorer and perimeter shooter which might make him a good fit with Wade.
2008 NBA Draft
The Miami Heat earned the 2nd overall pick of the 2008 NBA Draft, which should be good enough to land them either the offensive-minded Forward Michael Beasley, or the athletic Point Guard Derrick Rose. Miami fans should cross their fingers that Beasley slips, because Rose wouldn't be the ideal fit for that lineup. Miami's roster is already laden with athletic wing players who like to dominate the ball. Rose is not an effective shooter at this stage in his career and the fact that Wade likes to dominate the ball so much might make Rose less effective playing alongside him. Meanwhile, Beasley has an amazing inside-outside game, should be able to play both forward positions and has a nack for getting to the line and putting up points. He should be a good complement to Wade's game, and would make Marion (and his big contract) more expendable.
Trade Opportunities
The Heat's biggest trading chip not named Dwayne Wade might be Forward Udonis Haslem. He's undersized, which hurts his value, but he's a hard working, defensive-minded post player who can hit the open jump shot. The Heat may think to target either Memphis Grizzlies Point Guard Kyle Lowry, who may be the odd man out of a roster that already includes prospect point guards Mike Conley and Javaris Crittenton, or Chicago Bulls Point Guard Chris Duhon, who will be a free agent this summer. Both players shouldn't cost the Heat too much, and both have shown flashes of effectiveness and promise.
The biggest thing for the Heat is not to do anything too drastic. They still have players near retirement and others whose contracts will end soon. Miami has a lot of young talent and should wait for some of the smoke to clear to see what their options are. If they're able to land a top-flight free agent, such as Brand or Jamison, they should do so without hesitation. Otherwise, they should focus on filling in pieces on the cheap and look toward the future.
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