Do Lottery Picks Equal Playoffs?
Analyzing NBA Playoff Productivity from the Lottery Class of 2000
May 22, 2007
General Managers and other front office staff are preparing for the NBA Draft on June 28th. While teams in the draft lottery seems to have the best chance to improve their team immediately, how often does a lottery pick help their team reach the playoffs?
2000 Draft Lottery Picks Playoff Statistics
1. Kenyon Martin – New Jersey Nets
- Career Playoff Appearances / Games: 5 app. / 58 games
- Career Playoff Statistics: 17 ppg / 8 rpg / 1.3 bpg
- 2007 NBA Team: Denver Nuggets
- Player’s 2007 Team Made Playoffs: Yes
- Notes: Played in only two games in 2006-2007
2. Stromile Swift – Vancouver Grizzlies
- Career Playoff Appearances / Games: 2 app. / 7 games
- Career Playoff Statistics: 7 ppg / 5 rpg / 0.9 bpg
- 2007 NBA Team: Memphis Grizzlies
- Player’s 2007 Team Made Playoffs: Yes
- Notes: Spent one season outside Grizzlies organization (Houston 2005-06)
3. Darius Miles – Los Angeles Clippers
- Career Playoff Appearances / Games: None
- Career Playoff Statistics: N/A
- 2007 NBA Team: Portland Trailblazers
- Player’s 2007 Team Made Playoffs: No
- Notes: Played two seasons in Cleveland from 2002-03; 2003-04
4. Marcus Fizer – Chicago Bulls
- Career Playoff Appearances / Games: None
- Career Playoff Statistics: N/A
- 2007 NBA Team: N/A
- Player’s 2007 Team Made Playoffs: N/A
- Notes: Spent 2005-06 in NBA D-League
5. Mike Miller – Orlando Magic
- Career Playoff Appearances / Games: 5 app. / 20 games
- Career Playoff Statistics: 9 ppg / 3 rpg / 1.7 apg
- 2007 NBA Team: Memphis Grizzlies
- Player’s 2007 Team Made Playoffs: Yes
- Notes: Grizzlies franchise has no playoff wins in franchise history (0-12)
6. DerMarr Johnson – Atlanta Hawks
- Career Playoff Appearances / Games: 3 app. / 10 games
- Career Playoff Statistics: 4 ppg / 2 rpg / 0.7 apg
- 2007 NBA Team: Denver Nuggets
- Player’s 2007 Team Made Playoffs: Yes
- Notes: Spent one season with New York Knicks (2003-04)
7. Chris Mihm – Cleveland Cavaliers (from Bulls)
- Career Playoff Appearances / Games: 1 app. / 4 games
- Career Playoff Statistics: 5 ppg / 5 rpg / 1.0 bpg
- 2007 NBA Team: Los Angeles Lakers
- Player’s 2007 Team Made Playoffs: Yes
- Notes: Did not play in 2006-2007 (ankle injury)
8. Jamal Crawford – Chicago Bulls (from Cavs)
- Career Playoff Appearances / Games: None
- Career Playoff Statistics: N/A
- 2007 NBA Team: New York Knicks
- Player’s 2007 Team Made Playoffs: No
- Notes: Played only 59 games in 2006-07 (stress fracture in ankle)
9. Joel Pryzbilla – Milwaukee Bucks (from Rockets)
- Career Playoff Appearances / Games: 2 app. / 5 games
- Career Playoff Statistics: 0.4 ppg / 2 rpg / 0.4 bpg
- 2007 NBA Team: Portland Trailblazers
- Player’s 2007 Team Made Playoffs: No
- Notes: Made playoffs with Bucks (2001-02; 2002-03)
10. Keyon Dooling – Los Angeles Clippers (from Magic)
- Career Playoff Appearances / Games: 2 app. / 19 games
- Career Playoff Statistics: 7 ppg / 1 rpg / 1.6 bpg
- 2007 NBA Team: Orlando Magic
- Player’s 2007 Team Made Playoffs: Yes
- Notes: Made playoffs with Heat (2004-05)
Interesting Stat: Kenyon Martin has never played an entire 82-game regular season during his seven-year career. However, he has played in almost more playoff games (58) than the other nine lottery picks combined (65).
While the numbers might seem to be enough to gauge whether or not a top ten prospect was a bust, there are other factors that need to be taken into consideration, like post-superstar hangover (the Jordan-less Chicago Bulls) or notoriously cheap management (Los Angeles Clippers). One player cannot ensure a team’s success, so the entire burden of an underperforming franchise cannot rest solely on the shoulders of a player chosen in the draft lottery.
