The Miami Heat is not the same team as they were last season when they coasted to a 52-30 record and a division title. With four games left on the 2007 basketball season, the Heat have won ten fewer games and have barely slipped by the Washington Wizards for the division title; thanks in part to late injuries to star guard Gilbert Arenas, and forward Caron Butler.
Dwayne Wade's season was nearly lost after a shoulder injury. Only sheer will and toughness has allowed him to remain playing. Still, he isn't playing at 100% yet as evidenced by his subpar 13 ppg, 5 apg and 5 topg in his first two games back.
Shaquille O'Neal is finally showing a significant drop in his play this season. Though still a top-flight NBA center, he isn't the imposing monster on the court he once was. His points, boards and blocks, as well as minutes have been in steady decline over the past three seasons to the point where he almost seems human on the court. His 1.4 blocked shots per game is only one-tenth of a block more than Wade's average.
Yet, not all is lost for Miami. Though injuries have certainly taken their toll on the team this season, they seem to be bouncing back at just the right time as the playoffs approach. Gary Payton's recent torn left calf, which will cause him to miss 2-3 weeks, is a setback, but the Heat will count their blessings as Jason Kapono returns to continue his breakout season (11.1 ppg, 52% three point shooting), Udonis Haslem hopefully returning soon after a recent groin injury and Wade and Shaq find their groove.
The Heat have a few more things going for them as the playoffs approach. First, the Eastern Conference has quite a bit less depth overall than the Western Conference, making for a potentially easier path to the finals for teams playing in the East. Second, if the playoffs started today, the Heat would match up against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round, whom the Heat have beaten three out of four times this season. In addition, Miami would have home court advantage.
Miami has the oldest lineup in the NBA, with an average age of just under 29 years old - Dorell Wright being the youngest at 21 and Gary Payton being the oldest at 38. That being said, the Heat are still a very dangerous team. The question will be whether or not their players have enough left in the tank after last season's run and a long season filled with injuries.
If the Heat supporting cast can step things up, Wade plays at 100% and Shaq can produce enough to be a factor for just a couple more months, the Heat could have a chance at competing for the NBA Championships. However, this year's playoff run will be more challenging than last year's as teams will be gunning to take away their crown and the Western Conference is hungrier than ever.
